Now when upgrading from 19.1.2 to 19.1.6 (which needs reboot), I found that some VHIDs would go to master and some to backup (net.inet.carp.preempt=0, should be 1 but helpful for debugging here) afterwards.
After my HA setup was settled and working normally, I started to upgrade the switches one by one. With one switch down, the LAGG interface is still workable, since only one of both physical interfaces looses connection, but CARP seems to increase demotion based on the physical interface, not the resulting LAGG interface. In order to not have CARP failing over unnecessarily (which would affect eg. OpenVPN connections), CARP on the backup needs to be disabled temporarily.
Isn't the backup unit also on the same switch? Then it should not fail over ...
That's exactly the problem. Via the second switch both FWs have degraded but fully functional LAGG connectivity. CARP shouldn't react to LAGG degradation, but it does.