WAN link light drops randomly

[jwest]

I just want to run this by folks here to see if anyone has more/better ideas than I on the issue.

My setup:
opnsense_24.1.6 wan port igb3 -> poe injector -> isp modem

Randomly (sometimes every 5 or 10 minutes, sometimes a few hours, sometimes a day) I will notice my internet is down for a minute or two or 5, and then comes back up. I noticed that when this is happening, the link light on my wan port goes out. After 10 seconds or so, the link light comes on, activity flashes for a bit, then link light goes off again. Rinse and repeat, after a number of times eventually the link light stays on and everything works again.

From looking at my dashboard, in the gateway section under wan_dhcp, the ip address disappears when the link light goes out. When link light comes back on the IP re-appears in the gatewaysection, then disappears and gateway shows 'offline'. After repeating this cycle, at some point after a handful of retries the ip shows, and then the block says "online". To me this would seem like carrier/link signal lost, so dhcp tries to re-get its settings.

My wan port is set to dhcp, and my isp provides a sticky static public IP. According to them, the dhcp lease time is 24 hours. However when I look in the general logs, I see a dhcp.client renew on igb3 message repeating about every 2 minutes forever. I'd have thought it would renew at the 24 hour lease, not every 2 minutes or so? Is this an issue?

My guess from the above is that the drops are caused by loss of link signal from whatever is connected to my wan port, which would be the poe injector (2 port model: ac plug, data in, and data+poe out, provided by isp), or their modem, or the cables from router to poe and/or poe to modem.

Does anyone see this is likely a problem with my router vs. their poe adapter and modem?

They say that on their end they show their modem negotiates half-duplex with my wan port, when it should be full-plex, and that their equipment will shut down the connection if it doesnt negotiate to full duplex.

I'd have thought that if link dropped, I'd be getting console messages or messages in the log about lost carrier. I do not.

The ISP is coming out to replace all cables, the poe adapter, and possibly the modem. Is there anything in my description above that may be something on my end instead? Any help or pointers highly appreciated!