It figures I'd think of something right after I posted this. It turns out this hardware is really picky (and I mean really picky) about SFP modules. I had another couple of them from a different manufacturer that I was able to try, and they work . . . but only with specific modules (of nominally the same model number from the same manufacturer) in specific ports. If I swap them around, I see the same behavior on my network, though the firewall is fine.
So, I guess I just have to hope neither of these two SFP modules or SFP ports dies. That . . . doesn't feel great.
So, I guess I just have to hope neither of these two SFP modules or SFP ports dies. That . . . doesn't feel great.