It appears that the point of failure is 4 minutes after OpnSense is rebooted.
The main thing i noticed was that OPNsense doesn't appear to be sending MLDv2 announcements.
IP6 (hlim 1, next-header Options (0) payload length: 36) fe80::20d:xxxx:yyyy:7d0d > ff02::16: HBH (padn)(rtalert: 0x0000) [icmp6 sum ok] ICMP6, multicast listener report v2, 1 group record(s) [gaddr ff02::5 to_ex { }]
Multicast Address Listening Interval The Multicast Address Listening Interval (MALI) is the amount of time that must pass before a multicast router decides there are no more listeners of a multicast address or a particular source on a link. This value MUST be ([Robustness Variable] times [Query Interval]) plus [Query Response Interval].