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After seeing that I seem to get access back after a reboot, I wondered geometry dash lite is something starting up on my local machine could be causing this issue. As it turns out, yes!

When Tailscale started up, it was blocking access to local ports. As I run Tailscale on most of my machines with automatic start, this was affecting multiple machines a minute or so after startup. Only realised this was an issue when I suddenly had access to IPs after a Windows update and reboot (and noticed that an "Error - connection change" was booting me off again). Partly caused by the Tailscale connection on my server (which enables access to subnets) not starting automatically.

when it started up, it blocked local network access on multiple machines, causing all local IPs (including OPNSense) to become unreachable