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I moved the MAC address over to the new firewall since I have a mac-bound IP reservation from them.

The WAN is a VLAN interface on a lagg. Does TCPdump on a VLAN interface also set the underlying interfaces to promiscuous? If so that's probably it.

thanks,

I'm at a loss. I don't even know what information to include that might be helpful.

New installation to replace old hardware. Settings moved manually.

When I reboot the server, WAN doesn't work at all until I run tcpdump. When I do the internet starts working within a second. I've replicated this 4 times now. I can then disable tcpdump and it seems to run fine after that.

Things I tried before looking at packets:

switch between static and dhcp on wan
disable/reenable wan
release/renew dhcp
reconnect cables
disable firewall
tried different subnet from ISP
verified DHCP discovers were leaving my ONT, and Offers coming back (Request never left the ONT from firewall though, until I ran tcpdump).
Waiting an hour.

OPNsense 23.7-amd64
FreeBSD 13.2-RELEASE-p1
OpenSSL 1.1.1u 30 May 2023